A shortage of planes and engine-building difficulties could mean consumers face two more years of record flight prices.
For decades, two large companies held a firm grip on the aircraft manufacturing market: Boeing with a 40.6% share and Airbus with the remaining 60.4%. But significant disruptions in the first sector are wreaking havoc around the world.
More than 30,000 workers in Washington and Oregon are on strike, affecting production of two key Boeing models, the 737 Max and the 777 – and that’s not counting supply chain issues related to COVID and the shortage of spare parts.
As a result, planes now take up to five years from point of order to arrival on the runway.
And it’s not just Boeing. The Trent 1000 engine, manufactured by Rolls-Royce, which powers the Boeing 787, is experiencing longevity problems. Breakdowns and a lack of parts to make new ones mean grounded planes around the world are waiting to be repaired.
Photo: iStock
British Airways and Virgin Atlantic are two of the largest carriers that have been forced to suspend flights, or even remove entire routes from their schedules.
BA will not operate its daily service between London Gatwick and New York JFK between December 12 and the end of March, while Virgin Atlantic is reducing routes to Shanghai, Nassau in the Bahamas and Providenciales in the Turks and Caicos Islands, with the last flights to those whose departure is scheduled for February next year.
Paul Charles, Managing Director of PC Agency and former director of Eurostar and Virgin Atlantic, says the main problem is that demand far exceeds what airlines can offer.
“There is a shortage of planes and staff, so airlines are finding it difficult to grow as much as they want,” he said. the money blog.
“Especially as we now take more holidays per year – we don’t have the capacity to meet this demand. »
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The “COVID pains,” coupled with high inflation, are being felt around the world, and the travel industry is not immune to these pressures. Normally it takes about three years to build a plane, but right now it seems more like “up to five years.”
This “bottleneck in the system” has a “three or four year impact,” Paul said.
“So we’re going to see this bottleneck exist for a while, which means prices are going up because there’s more demand for less capacity.”
The latest budget also announced changes to air passengers, which will affect prices…
Will it get better?
With no signs of consumer appetite for travel slowing, the future is “bright,” Paul said.
“You have runways expanding, you see airports expanding all over the world, not just in the UK.”
As infrastructure improves and airports adopt new technologies (we’re getting “to the point where you won’t need to carry your passport because your eye will be your ID card,” says Paul), things will start to improve by 2027.
“Boeing will return to full-scale production – you will find the lead times for a new aircraft speed up,” he said.
“So in three years, I think, we’ll be back to a happier travel environment, like we had pre-COVID.”
By then, we could face price increases of around 5% per year, he estimates.
Photo: iStock
Can travelers still find good deals?
That’s not bad news if you’re still looking to make a deal.
Katy Maclure, editor of The Detour at Jack Flight Club which works to find discount flights, said “all signs point to a recovery in travel in the grand scheme of things.”
“From what we’ve seen, things haven’t been crazy in terms of the increased cost of flights,” she told Money.
“Some destinations, of course. Some destinations are harder to get to or some airlines have pulled out of destinations where there may be too much competition for them to be worth it.
“We have seen European airlines withdrawing from Chinese routes one by one, not least because they can fly much further due to limitations in Russian airspace.”
But she stressed that budget airlines are growing faster than ever: last week, EasyJet announced 26 new routes, including its first sub-Saharan service.
Some tips for saving money
In addition to our usual advice on shopping or being flexible with your trip, Paul offered a few extra tips to try and get a cheaper price.
- Think about the airport: Some airports, like Tokyo, cost airlines more to land – so some of that cost will be passed on to the consumer. If you can, be flexible about where you land in your destination country.
- Boxing Day sales: In addition to Black Friday deals, some airlines are launching sales at the end of December.
- Try flying on a Tuesday: There is generally less demand and prices are often lower.
- Avoid looking like a business traveler: If you leave on a Tuesday and come back a few days later, Paul says the system will think you’re on a business trip and try to charge you more. But if you leave on Tuesday and return the following Monday, you’re more likely to think you’re taking a leisure trip.