The Chinese economy worked better than expected in the first quarter of the year – but it reflects a moment before the explosive trade war with the United States, which saw the two largest world economies decoupled effectively.
Economists had predicted that the gross domestic product would increase by around 5.1% in January to March, compared to a year earlier. In the end, it increased by 5.4%.
But these impressive figures obscure the very serious challenges China The economy is faced following Trump’s trade war – And it’s almost a certain growth will not remain so strong over the year.
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The worst Trump prices entered into force in April, Which means that they are not reflected in these figures.
In the first quarter, China had to face an initial 10% rate on all its exports to the United States – which was then increased to 20% compared to March 10.
But Beijing had planned and prepared For taxes at this level, and therefore the impact was quite minimal.
Growth was also propelled by the fact that exporters rushed to deliver bulk orders before the entry into force of the prices.
In fact, exports increased by 12% remarkable in March compared to a year earlier, a rate that will not be maintained.
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The current prices on goods sold from China to America are 145%. Trade at this price is almost impossible.
Since exports represent a fifth of the Chinese economy and consumer confidence is still slow, there will be a significant blow to come.
Experts agree that China will most likely miss its 5% annual growth target – the question is how much.