What happens if Great Britain has, almost entirely by accident, to transform itself into the best possible position in which it could be, when Donald Trump embarks on a trade war with almost all its economic partners?
I realize that it could, at the beginning, seem a little strange. After all, when the world is faced with economically destructive measures (general prices are invariably destructive, at least), it is difficult to see many victories. In addition, when it comes to Donald TrumpNo one, including their own cabinet and staff, can predict what will happen next. Consider the roller coaster on prices in the past few days only.
Even so, the fact remains that from all countries and regions of the world, Great Britain seems much less likely than most of the type of prices that the president is so passionate.
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To see why, it is useful to remember that the only thing that Mr. Trump hates above all is commercial deficits – when you import more goods (and it seems to be goods that he mainly cares) of a Another country you send there in return.
America has a huge trade deficit with China and with Mexico In addition, not to mention a smaller deficit but not insignificant with Canada. When the president talks about the reasons for his prices, he sometimes mentions illegal imports of fentanyl, but, more often, he refers to the size of commercial deficits. He wants America to do more things at the national level and suck less things abroad.
We may have a long conversation (and I suspect that we will probably have a long conversation in the coming months) on the extent to which deficits are, in itself, a bad thing. But in the short term, let’s focus on the United Kingdom and its forces in this game.
First, as the United Kingdom is no longer part of the European Union, it will not be automatically confronted with the same commercial terms as its neighbors on the continent. If the United States imposes prices in the EU, Great Britain will not necessarily be faced with them.
Second, if there is a country in the world with even larger trade deficits than the United States, it is Great Britain. This country has been successful even faster than America, with the result that unlike the EU or Canada or Mexico, Great Britain is one of the few countries in the world to import more goods America that America imports.
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Folder note: this last point in fact depends on the figures you look at. Look at the American figures and he has a trade surplus with the United Kingdom. Look at the British figures and America has a commercial deficit with us. But anyway, the two are very small. The numbers are essentially balanced.
Third, in recent months, the new Labor government has started to improve its relations with China. Chancellor Rachel Reeves participated in a financial diplomacy mission in Beijing last month. And unlike almost all other industrialized countries in the developed world, Great Britain has not imposed any prices for imports from Chinese electric vehicles.
Many diplomats have raised the eyebrows on this subject, but in the event that America wanted to conclude an agreement with Great Britain, it is precisely the kind of thing that the government could quickly reverse: “Oh, then – in Exchange of this trade agreement, we rested to impose these prices on China – those that everyone has already introduced. »»
Find out more:
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Why did Trump target Mexico and Canada?
How Trump’s prices could have an impact on consumers
What is funny about these three strengths is that, first, until recently, many would have seen each of them – Brexit, our deindustrialization and our confrontation in China – as weaknesses rather than Forces. They were certainly not part of a large strategic plan.
Even thus, the United Kingdom is nevertheless found in a position unexpectedly when it comes to negotiating with the United States. He has a better chance than most nations to act as a diplomatic bridge between America and Europe. His chances of sealing that the trade agreement very tuned with the United States has improved rather than deteriorated. Indeed, I am told that the main members of the administration think that a commercial agreement with the United Kingdom could be sealed in a few months.
It remains to be seen if it really is seen. After all, if there is one thing that you cannot predict with regard to Donald Trump, that’s it.