A sort of electric awkwardness hangs over Anfield this weekend. You can feel it – a mixture of anticipation and a little nervousness. Arne Slot was not the quiet prodigy that everyone expected nor a failure; he is somewhere between the two, he is doing quite well and, above all, with a record within his reach. Beat Manchester United on Sunday and he will claim 100 Premier League points in just 46 games as Liverpool manager. That would allow him to surpass Kenny Dalglish’s mark of 48 matches and, well, that’s the kind of statistic you remember. Or at least mentioned in a few more titles.
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Why this match matters more than it seems
If you take it apart – without pomp, without nostalgia – it’s just very good luck. United falter. They have been disgruntled visitors to Anfield for a long time. And Liverpool, even if they have been a little messy lately, still have the home advantage. Slot reached 100 points two games later than he could have done due to defeats against Crystal Palace and Chelsea; these results annoyed the fans and probably him too. We sense a manager who wants to stabilize things, stop small leaks before they turn into big holes. A win against United seems like the right way to do that. Of course, this is not the only way. But it is a clear and public way to show progress.
Anfield’s history with United is fraught. This will be the 100th meeting between the clubs of this country, in all competitions. Liverpool have 48 wins to United’s 26 on the field. These numbers don’t lie: it’s a place where the home team has generally dominated. If Slot’s side avoid defeat on Sunday, Liverpool will set a new club record: ten consecutive home league matches without defeat against United, surpassing a streak from the 1970s. That’s impressive. It also comes with a bit of pressure: every record becomes something that everyone looks at until someone breaks it.
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Recent meetings have been one-sided. In the last seven league matches at Anfield, Liverpool have scored 18 goals and conceded three. This is a dominant trend, and it’s hard not to see it as a trend rather than a coincidence. Last season’s 7-0, while perhaps a little painful for neutrals who hate blowouts, still lingers in people’s minds. You won’t see a repeat of that exact scoreline – unlikely – but that memory makes United’s job even harder. The psychological part matters; Sometimes certain games feel like traps and sometimes they feel like opportunities. For Liverpool, this one looks like both.
What’s wrong with United – and is it fixable?
Ruben Amorim’s time at Old Trafford has not been smooth sailing. They have won just one of their last 14 Premier League matches against Liverpool, and just two of the last 18 – small sample size, massive involvement. Their recent away form hasn’t helped: defeats at Manchester City and Brentford, draw at Fulham. A victory against Sunderland offered brief relief, yes, but not an upset. Also, a penalty shootout at Grimsby in the Carabao Cup? This is the kind of result that doesn’t improve confidence.
There is one grim statistic: Martinez’s goal in January was his first league goal at Anfield in 559 minutes. It’s astonishing. This highlights not only tactical issues, but also finishing issues, or perhaps a failure to create high quality chances in this match. Amorim have taken 37 points from 34 league matches since taking charge – which isn’t exactly what silences the doubters. If United win on Sunday, it would be their first consecutive league victory under his leadership. This is a small but important step. And yet, doing that at Anfield? Given that United have conceded four or more goals in four of their last nine league meetings with Liverpool, this seems far-fetched. Maybe it can happen – football is stupid like that – but the chances are not great.
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Tactics, pressure and little things
Slot has choices to make. Does he push for a fast start and try to destabilize United early, or does he sit a little deeper and invite them in, hoping to score the break? He has already demonstrated tactical flexibility; but lately you can see him juggling ideas on the sidelines as if he’s trying to solve a puzzle on the fly. It’s relevant. I’m cautiously optimistic – not because everything is perfect, but because there is enough quality in the Liverpool team to do some damage if Slot picks the right moments.
For United, the task is to balance defense and attack with confidence. They need to create chances without giving Liverpool easy transitions. Easier said than done. I’ve watched games where teams tightened up and stifled a stronger opponent; and I’ve seen the opposite, where the stronger side moves away. It depends on small moments: an early goal, a gentle concession, a decision by the referee. Football is full of mini-tilts that rock the entire day.
Form, momentum and the human element
Form is a complicated thing. Liverpool’s defeats against Palace and Chelsea showed they can be vulnerable; United’s recent inconsistency shows they can be vulnerable too. Dynamics are changing quickly in this league. A good result and confidence flourishes; one bad streak and things seem worse than they really are. I find it credible, frankly. Managers react, players tighten up, fans become noisy. Slot will want his team to be composed, to play with a certain urgency but not panic. This mixture is delicate.
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Prediction – and a little personal note
I’ll put it like this: I think Liverpool will win 2-1. Not a rash. Not a flawless performance. Just enough – a strong home performance, an early goal to ease the nerves, then Liverpool hold on despite a United push. It looks good at the moment: Slot breaks a record, United continues to fight and Anfield breathes a little easier.
You may disagree. Maybe United will pull something off, maybe Liverpool will stumble again. That’s football, unpredictable and often slightly unfair. But this match feels like an opportunity Slot won’t want to miss. It’s a good scene, and sometimes that’s all you need to swing the story in your favor.