Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, presidential candidate in 2023 under the aegis of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), made a striking assertion in a recent interview with BBC Hausa: the 2027 elections will be the most difficult in Nigeria’s democratic history. It’s a bold statement – and it landed in a country that has now seen its fair share of drama at the polls. But if you listen carefully to what he says, it’s not just rhetoric. It’s a reading of the changing public mood, and perhaps a warning.
A sense of urgency
Kwankwaso’s basic point is simple: people know more now. Radio, social media, messaging apps: these channels spread information, true and false, widely and quickly. This has two obvious effects. First, citizens are less likely to be passive. They hear about failures in governance, corruption, service breakdowns; they compare notes. Second, it becomes more difficult to influence them with old tricks – cash handouts, shouted promises during election campaigns or familiar pressure from local influencers. In short, awareness brings a new kind of impatience. People want change. They are looking for a way out of the current situation and are not willing to accept the same scenarios.
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It’s not just a campaign issue. Kwankwaso highlights real changes in behavior: voters are checking the facts, demanding answers, responding to politicians. I’ve seen this too: people demanding transparency in ways never seen before, or organizing small groups that push for accountability. It’s complicated. It’s also unpredictable. You can plan a campaign, but can you plan millions of small, independent decisions made by people who feel like they finally have a voice? Maybe not.
The role of the media and disinformation
There is an irony here. The very tools that empower citizens also sow confusion. Social media has certainly been a force for civic engagement, but it has also amplified rumors and polarized content. Kwankwaso mentions radio and social media as drivers of change – and it’s true. They help voters learn. But they also make elections noisier and more volatile. Something may evolve one day and disappear the next, but the damage – or benefit – may persist.
This is an important nuance. When he says voters “won’t sell their votes,” he expresses confidence in a more informed electorate. I want to believe it – and I worry too. People can pretend they won’t be bought, but how many decisions are made under pressure, or out of fear, or because the closest option offers immediate relief? Political consciousness does not erase the context: poverty, insecurity, local loyalties. These factors still matter. Yet the discourse is evolving, and that alone can make elections less predictable.
What does “hardest” mean?
When Kwankwaso predicts the “toughest” election, he’s probably talking about several things at once. This could mean tougher competition between parties, with candidates forced to be more reactive and less cavalier. This could mean increased scrutiny from watchdog agencies, journalists and ordinary citizens. It could also mean that the electoral process itself faces new challenges: legal battles, protests or intense conflicts over the results. All this would make the 2027 cycle more difficult than previous ones.
He finished fourth in 2023, behind Bola Tinubu (APC), Atiku Abubakar (PDP) and Peter Obi (LP). This is relevant because it shows that he still commands a base and speaks from a place of continued involvement in national politics. This perspective is important: he is not an outsider making predictions from the sidelines. He has lived through campaign cycles, knows the mechanics and feels where the gears are grinding.
What could change the situation?
Several elements could amplify Kwankwaso’s forecasts. The first concerns the persistent economic difficulties. When people struggle to meet their basic needs, their tolerance for the status quo diminishes. Another aspect is youth participation: Nigeria has a very young population, and if more young voters showed up, they could change the results. A third problem concerns the electoral infrastructure itself: if the electoral system becomes more transparent and more secure, small manipulations have less room to maneuver. Conversely, if the system is seen as faulty, tensions could rise.
Local dynamics will also be important. Nigeria is not a monolith; regions have different priorities and histories. What triggers strong reactions in one state may barely be reflected in another. This inequality partly explains why 2027 might seem “harder” – because national narratives will be tested against various local realities.
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A final thought – and a caution
Kwankwaso’s prediction reads as both a hope and a challenge. Hope, because an informed electorate could push for real change. Challenge, because the path there is uncertain and perhaps eventful. I find this mixture credible. I also find this a bit disturbing: democracy works best with trust, and trust is thin right now. If the 2027 elections become a referendum on current difficulties, then the stakes are enormous. People might insist on responsibility, or they might be pushed toward riskier choices out of frustration.
Either way, we should expect a louder and more contested political season. Expect new alliances, more heated debates and perhaps results that will surprise those who think the old rules still apply. And yes, expect some mess along the way. Real people react in real time and don’t always follow well-defined patterns.